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Human activity has made Earth hotter now than at any point in
400 and possibly more than 1000 years, a US Congress commissioned report said
Thursday.
Temperature in the northern hemiphere warmed by about one degree Fahrenheit
(0.6 degrees Celsius) during the last century, the report by the National
Academy of Sciences
found.
Scientists have argued that the change was sufficient to alter hurricane
patterns and see Polar ice caps melt down.
"There is sufficient evidence ... to say with a high level of confidence that
the last few decades of the 20th century were warmer than any comparable period
in the last 400 years," the academy's National Research Council report said.
The Republican-led House Science Committee commissioned the study in November
after controversial findings by climatologist Michael Mann showed that the 1990s
were the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year of the 20th century.
The administration of US President George W. Bush has argued that evidence on global warming
was not strong enough to support expensive new measure to curb pollution that the White House argues could also cost American jobs.
But the latest report -- while stressing that data from before 1600 is for
the large part sketchy -- said Mann's conclusion that a graphic charting temperatures
over the past century looked like a "hockey stick" was correct.
The academy's National Research Council said Mann's findings were
"plausible," but that there was insufficient evidence to pinpoint 1998 as the
hottest year.
Existing data did illustrate that temperatures were lower before the
industrial revolution and that human activity was responsible for the warming,
the study said.
"The committee pointed out that surface temperature reconstruction for
periods before the Industrial Revolution ... are only one of multiple lines of
evidence supporting the conclusion that current warming is occurring in response
to human activities," the report said.
For the northern hemisphere, reconstructions showed that warm conditions
centered around the year 1000 and that a relatively cold period -- dubbed the
"Little Ice Age" -- followed from 1500 to 1850.
Things started heating up again with the industrial revolution before spiking
up in the past decades.
Although temperatures 1,000 years ago were warm, they do not compare with
those now, the report said.
"None of the reconstruction indicates that temperatures were warmer during
medieval times than during the past few decades," it said.
The report called for more research into proxy data for the period prior to
1600 so that comparisons for the past two millennia could be made, and for
improved global access to existing to information on which temperature studies
could be conducted.
It noted that far more research existed for the northern hemisphere than for
the southern hemisphere, and that this vacuum limited the reliability of data
overall.
Source: Space Daily
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