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The world's second largest ice cap may be melting three times faster than
indicated by previous measurements, according to newly released gravity data
collected by satellites.
The Greenland Ice Sheet shrank at a rate of about 239 cubic kilometres per
year from April 2002 to November 2005, a team from the University of Texas at
Austin, US, found. In the last 18 months of the measurements, ice melting has
appeared to accelerate, particularly in southeastern Greenland.
"This is a good study which confirms that indeed the Greenland ice sheet is
losing a large amount of mass and that the mass loss is increasing with time,"
says Eric Rignot, from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California,
US, who led a separate study that reached a similar conclusion earlier in 2006.
His team used satellites to measure the velocity of glacier movement and
calculate net ice loss.
Yet another technique, which uses a laser to measure the altitude of the
surface, determined that the ice sheet was losing about 80 cubic kilometres of
ice annually between 1997 and 2003. The newer measurements suggest the ice loss
is three times that.
"Acceleration of ice mass loss over Greenland, if confirmed, would be
consistent with proposed increased global warming in recent years, and would
indicate additional polar ice sheet contributions to global sea level rise,"
write the University of Texas researchers in the journal Science.
The satellites that provided the new data are results the Gravity Recovery
and Climate Experiment (GRACE) pair. These identical US and German satellites
fly 220 kilometres from one another. They use a microwave ranging system and
Global Positioning System to measure precisely the distance between one another.
Tiny changes in that distance reflect changes in the Earth's gravity field,
which in turn is a measure of the density of part of the Earth.
"The gravity data are spectacular in providing precise information about what
is happening to the ice sheets," says NASA climatologist James Hansen, director
of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, US. "They provide the
net effect of mass change, due to both melting and snowfall changes. It confirms
our expectation that the warming climate will cause Greenland ice to shrink."
Based on the glaciology of the region, Rignot says he does not think that the
north-eastern part of Greenland's ice cap has lost as much ice as the Texas team
suggests - 74 cubic kilometres annually.
Other factors could account for the discrepancy, acknowledges Clark Wilson,
one of the University of Texas team. For instance, scientists do not fully
understand the ocean tides in the Arctic Ocean, and there are not a lot of
weather stations to monitor air pressure there. GRACE only measures changes in
gravity due to changing mass - it cannot tell if that results from changes in
air, water, rock or ice.
So to find changes due to ice loss alone, the researchers have to subtract
the estimated contribution of water and air. If that is not well known, it
results in higher uncertainties in the interpretation.
"We're hoping as time goes on, we'll have improved tide models, improved
atmospheric pressure estimates and also better ways to use the GRACE data
themselves," Wilson told New Scientist. The Greenland Ice Sheet holds about 2.85 million cubic kilometres of ice -
10% of the world's ice mass. If it all melted, it would raise the average sea
level about 6.5 metres.
This is not GRACE's first measurement of an ice sheet. Another team at the
University of Colorado, Boulder, US, similarly used the GRACE system to show
that the Antarctic ice sheet was losing about 152 cubic kilometres annually from
2002 to 2005. "We should be making plans for the next generation of gravity satellites, but
with the cutback in NASA funding for Earth science, this is not happening," says
Hansen, who earlier in 2006 accused officials at NASA headquarters of trying to
stop him from speaking out on greenhouse gas emissions.
Source: New Scientist
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